Open financial-economics analytics
Trace any crisis, any bank,
any balance sheet to its source
Banking, currency and sovereign-debt crises across two centuries, the US banking system down to the branch and the loan application, long-run returns, and cross-country finance. Every number is computed at build time from primary sources (Laeven-Valencia, Reinhart-Rogoff, JST Macrohistory, BIS, IMF, World Bank, FDIC, NCUA, SEC, HMDA, FRED). Where the data cannot support a claim, the page says so.
Latest readings
computed from the primary sources at the last buildTwo centuries of financial crises
explore the chronology4,798 banking, currency and sovereign-debt crisis events across 165 economies, 1800–2025, by decade.
Latest briefs
all briefsIn the quarter Silicon Valley Bank failed, banks drew more from the Fed's discount window than in the whole of the rest of the disclosed record put together. By law, nobody outside the Fed could see it for two years. That is not a scandal. It is the price of the window working at all, and it puts a hard ceiling on what any early-warning system can do.
In 2024 Bangladesh's banks reported a profit, and reported capital adequacy more than halving. Both cannot describe the same year. The arithmetic says what happened: the losses were already there, and the accounts had not said so.
FinObservatory runs three predictive models. Each one is scored against the simplest rival that could embarrass it: one ratio, or one variable. Two of the three lose outright. The third wins by so little, against a rival so crude, that the conclusion does not change.
How fresh is the data
full catalog and licencesThe latest observation in each daily-cadence view, queried from the estate itself at build time. A stale estate shows itself here; quarterly and annual sources report the same way on the data page.
All modules
65 modules, every one on this listCrises & Sovereign
- Crises Two centuries of crises, five chronologies
- Crisis Patterns What macro data does before a crisis
- Early Warning Credit gaps against Basel III thresholds now
- R-Zone Credit and price booms jointly, backtested and live
- Sovereign Debt-to-GDP against crisis-onset benchmarks
- Public Finance US state and local revenue, spending, and municipal debt
- External Debt Who developing countries owe, and on what terms
- Haircuts Creditor losses in restructurings since 1823
- China Lending What borrowers owe China
- External Positions NIIP and external balance-sheet composition
Banking
- Banks A health score for every FDIC-insured bank
- Fragility Unrealized losses against uninsured funding, per bank
- Deposit Betas How deposit rates follow the Fed, three hiking cycles
- Holding Companies The FR Y-9C consolidated layer
- Deposits Summary of Deposits by state, county, branch
- Credit Unions Three decades of NCUA call reports
- Systemic CoVaR, SRISK, MES and the absorption ratio
- Conditions FCI, credit gap, yield curve, stress indices
- Central Banks Five major balance sheets, level and % of GDP
- Funding Repo and money-fund volumes from the OFR monitor
- Money Funds MMF assets by category and holdings, from SEC Form N-MFP
- Fund Flows Open-end fund subscriptions and redemptions, from SEC Form N-PORT
- Ownership Who owns the lenders, from the GLEIF legal-entity graph
- Enforcement Public supervisory actions, Fed and OCC
- Bangladesh System-level banking soundness, aggregates only
Credit & Markets
- Lending The HMDA loan-level register
- Mortgage Applications, originations and denials from 2007
- Securitization Agency and private-label MBS and ABS outstanding
- Filings As-filed XBRL from SEC data sets
- Rates The Treasury curve and every 2s10s inversion
- Factors Did the Fama-French factors pay?
- Returns Real returns since 1870 in 16 economies
- Valuation CAPE and the ten years that follow it
- Corporate Credit The credit spread record since 1919
- Positioning CFTC futures positioning by trader class
- Institutional Holdings How crowded institutional positions are, from SEC Form 13F
- Commodities EIA energy prices, fuels, US production and inventories
- Derivatives BIS OTC notionals, CDS, and Triennial FX turnover
- Digital Assets CME crypto positioning and the BIS CBDC tracker
- Consumer Seventeen million CFPB complaints, counted
- Consumer Credit G.19 volumes, terms, and bank delinquency rates
- Small Business SBA 7(a) and 504 losses by vintage and by lender
- Housing House prices around banking crises
World
- Reserves COFER currency composition since 1999
- Bank Claims BIS lending read from the creditor side
- Cross-Border Who funds a given country
- Remittances Receipts, corridors, and GDP shares
- Inclusion Findex account ownership and its gaps
- Payments How the world pays, and the wholesale rails
- Insurance Premiums, penetration and solvency worldwide
- Pensions Funded pension assets and the DB to DC shift
- Fincrime FATF lists and OFAC aggregates, verbatim
- Rankings Economies ranked on each country indicator
- Countries One canonical page per country
Wealth & distribution
- Wealth US net worth by group, generation and race
- Inequality Income and wealth concentration across countries
- Redistribution What taxes and transfers do to inequality
- Mobility Whether positions change across generations
Research
- Analyst Citation-first AI over the whole estate
- Research Classic results re-run on the estate
- Briefs Dated, cited analysis notes
- Library Central-banking text corpora, explored
- Data Every dataset, its licence, its source
- Methodology How every figure is computed
- Pro Planned personal and professional tiers, stated honestly